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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still